The total installed capacity of power batteries ushered in the price increase of lithium carbonate i
Lithium Grid News: Recently, the China Automobile Association announced the production and sales of new energy vehicles in May 2018. Disturbance in the entire lithium carbonate market.
Lithium Grid News: Recently, the China Automobile Association announced the production and sales of new energy vehicles in May 2018. In May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 96,000 and 102,000, respectively, an increase of 85.6% and 125.6% over the same period of the previous year. In the first five months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were completed at 328,000 units, an increase of 122.9% and 141.6% respectively over the same period of the previous year.
From the data point of view, in the first five months of this year, the new energy automobile industry showed a boom in production and sales. In terms of output, except for the year-on-year growth of 96.97% in March, the year-on-year growth rate of all other months exceeded 100%. In terms of sales volume, except for the year-on-year growth of 88.90% in February, the year-on-year growth rate of all other months exceeded 100%. The prosperity of the entire industry is very obvious.
Different from the hot scenes in the downstream, the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream material is in the ice cave. As of June 12, according to Wind data, the price of lithium carbonate products is 138,000 yuan/ton, about 163,000 yuan from the beginning of the year. The high level of tons fell by 15.34%. According to business community data, some manufacturers' lithium carbonate ex-factory price has fallen below 130,000 yuan.
For the situation of lithium carbonate and new energy vehicles in the upstream and downstream "ice and fire", there are currently two voices in the market.
One voice believes that since 2018, the continued decline in demand for cathode materials and the combined release of new capacity of lithium carbonate have led to price declines. On the one hand, according to the statistics of third-party organizations, the overall output of cathode materials continued to decline in the first quarter of 2018, and the main decline was mainly lithium iron phosphate products. Following the significant reduction of 35.5% in the fourth quarter of 2017, the first quarter of this year continued to decrease. 19.1%, the cumulative reduction is nearly 50%; on the other hand, according to incomplete statistics, there will be no more than 60,000 tons of new capacity released in 2018, and in 2017 this figure is 84,000 tons.
Another voice believes that the 2018 new energy vehicle subsidy policy makes it possible for both vehicle manufacturers and battery manufacturers to reduce the inventory of products below 200km as much as possible before June 12; After June 12, the subsidies were more subsidies than during the transition period, so that downstream manufacturers only digested the stocks and did not make up or even replenish the stocks. In the first half of the year, lithium carbonate did not increase the production capacity in large quantities, because the downstream did not make up. The price brought by inventory has fallen.
In this regard, Li Bingxin, deputy secretary-general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Branch, said at the mid-term strategy meeting of Caitong Securities that from the perspective of supply, global lithium resource development has indeed appeared in a state of high blooms, but high-quality mines and The supply of high-quality lithium carbonate is still tight; from the demand side, the future development prospects of new energy vehicles are clear, and the demand for lithium carbonate is relatively certain. Therefore, he believes that the supply of lithium carbonate has not yet reached a large excess. In the situation, the price is still in a high-level operation.
The research report of a brokerage research institute also holds this view. The report points out that the annual compound growth rate of lithium carbonate in 2013-2022 is expected to reach 13%, which is much higher than the growth rate of many industrial products. A professor at the Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences said that the cost of power batteries has dropped rapidly since last year . When battery costs fall to a certain level in the future, new energy vehicles will have an index-type growth inflection point, and demand will far exceed market expectations. Lithium carbonate demand can maintain steady growth at least in the medium and long term.
As for the supply of lithium carbonate, from the investigation of brokerages, domestic companies have disclosed their habitual high-definition capacity for their own lithium carbonate production capacity. Moreover, the process of releasing the entire capacity takes time. From the past experience, the planned capacity is less than expected is a high probability event. It is only because of the rapid expansion of lithium carbonate from a small industry, there are talent shortages and immature operation management. A new expansion project often takes 3-5 years of running-in period to truly complete the climbing stage of capacity and yield.
In addition, for the lithium salt technology that was once heated in the market , the professor of the Chinese Academy of Sciences said that in general, the lithium mine construction period is longer, and the salt lake lithium is especially needed. It takes at least five years, so he is not optimistic about the salt lake. Disturbance in the entire lithium carbonate market. Another industry person commented that the problem of lithium extraction in salt lakes is that the composition of each salt lake is different, and the lithium extraction technology that can be adapted to the salt lakes is also different. There are certain technical obstacles. Otherwise, the development cost of the salt lake should be earlier. It has occupied the core position of the market.
For the future price changes of lithium carbonate, a brokerage researcher said that despite the “612 New Deal” in the first five months to stimulate manufacturers to destock, the overall growth momentum is more diversified, and in the second half of the long range of mileage models Under the background, the total installed capacity of power batteries will usher in the peak season, which will benefit the price of upstream lithium resources.
Another buyer researcher is cautiously optimistic. He said that according to previous years' experience, the third quarter is the peak season for the lithium battery market. Although lithium iron phosphate is relatively poor, the growth of ternary materials cannot be underestimated. Due to the slower process of adding new lithium carbonate, the price in the third quarter will not be affected by the impact. However, the situation after the fourth quarter is slightly pessimistic, mainly because the expansion projects of the industry leaders including Yanfeng Lithium Industry and Tianqi Lithium Industry will be put into production one after another. The oversupply phenomenon of the lithium carbonate industry will be more obvious, under extreme impact. Prices may fall sharply.